Pittsburgh Pirates - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Pirates finished with the second most wins in the majors last year (98), but they didn't even win their division as the Cardinals were the only team to hit triple-digits in wins. They were bounced in the one-game Wild Card playoff, but they still have a strong team that should make a run at the playoffs this year. As you've guessed, a team that talented will produce some daily baseball value throughout the year. The outfield is loaded with some of the most desirable, well-rounded offensive players in the game. The infield isn't stacked, but there's some talent there, too. There is big stack upside with this team against lefties and righties. The rotation is top heavy, but pitching coach Ray Searage has been a miracle worker and could morphed what appears to be an undesirable bottom of the rotation into his latest redemption story.

Park Factors

PNC Park is a slightly pitcher-friendly venue. In addition to suppressing runs (1% to lefties and 7% to righties), it also depresses hitting extra base hits of all types. Left-handed batters are docked 8% on doubles/triples and 1% on homers, and righties are docked 9% in doubles/triples and 16% homers. The Pirates lineup is deep enough you won't want to use just any pitcher against them, but the top pitchers who you'd consider using get a boost from this venue. And, of course, the Pittsburgh hurlers all get a boost from their home digs.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Francisco Cervelli - 1/72

Chris Stewart - 20/72

The Pirates pulled off one of the quieter yet great moves acquiring Francisco Cervelli last offseason. He more than admirably filled the hole left by Russell Martin's departure in free agency. Cervelli tied for the top pitch framing honors. Chris Stewart also graded out as above average. As if pitching under the tutelage of Ray Searage in pitcher-friendly PNC Park weren't enough benefits for the pitching staff, they sweep the fringe benefits by throwing to a pair of excellent pitch framers.

Spring Training Storylines

How far into his rehab process will Jung-ho Kang be when the team breaks camp?

Jung-ho Kang suffered a season-ending knee injury in September, and the initial recovery timetable was 6 to 8 months. He's since ramped up rehab, and general manager Neal Huntington has stated he believes Kang could return before the end of April. When asked about the potential for Kang to return by Opening Day, he said "I don't know ... maybe." Kang had a modest start to the season in a reserve role before exploding down the stretch. He should be aiding daily baseball teams early in the year, but some Spring Training at-bats to shake off the rust would be a plus.

Can John Jaso handle first base?

John Jaso has played five innings at first base in the majors in his entire career. The former catcher has a history of concussions, and the Rays hoped he'd be their primary designated hitter last season. Jaso was healthy for just 89 games. The Pirates are now hoping he'll be able to learn the ropes at first base, but because they're a National League team, they don't have the luxury of using a designated hitter to fall back on if he falters. First base is deep, and shedding catcher eligibility will hurt Jaso's daily baseball value. He's projected to hit down order in the lineup projection table, but his strong OBP skills could certainly net him a table setter spot. Hitting in one of the top two spots in the order would greatly enhance his daily baseball appeal, even at the deep position of first base. He's a platoon candidate with a below average bat against lefties. Jaso doesn't have much fence clearing thump against righties, but he can rope doubles, and his line-drive approach (24.5% line drive rate against righties since 2013) is tailor made for PNC Park. Jaso carries a .368 OBP against right-handed pitchers in the last three years, and his daily baseball value will be largely tied to where he hits in the lineup. That said, as a down-order hitter, he can still hold some modest punt value.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Gregory Polanco continued his development in his second year in the majors, and his 27 stolen bases ranked ninth in the majors. He was, however, caught stealing 13 times. The inefficiency hurts him on DraftKings, where players lose points when they're caught stealing, but Polanco is a speedster with massive stolen base upside. He's not a slap-singles speedster, but his power hasn't really shown up in a big way in games as he had just a.135 ISO against righties and was completely tied up by lefties. At 24-years old, there's plenty of untapped upside to get excited about, and the fact Polanco improved as the year went along should be viewed as a huge positive (81 wRC+ in the first half and 108 wRC+ in the second half). Don't use him against lefties until he showcases he's made sizable gains, but his speed and upside make him a fine investment against righties right out of the chute.

Andrew McCutchen, the 2014 National League MVP, remains one of the MLB's brightest stars. He's an elite hitter against either handedness of pitcher. If Cutch had totaled enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter from 2013 through last year, he'd have ranked fourth in wRC+ against southpaws and tied for eighth in wRC+ against righties. The only knock against McCutchen is that his stolen bases are trending in the wrong direction (27 in 2013, 18 in 2014 and 11 last year). He brings one of the most well-rounded skill-sets to the table hitting for power, still chipping in on the bases and posting an OBP of .400 or higher each year since 2012. The face of the Pirates is an elite option in all game types.

Starling Marte is one of the elite base stealers in the game. He's stolen 30 or more bases in each of the last three years. Unlike his other speedy corner outfielder teammate, Marte's power is developed and he hit a career-high 19 homers in 633 plate appearances. He doesn't walk much, but he has an uncanny ability for getting hit by pitches (60 HBPs in the last three years combined). It's no fluke he's getting plunked, either, as he demonstrated the "skill" of getting hit by a pitch in the minors as well. Oddly, Marte's production fell apart against lefties last year. He shaved nearly 10% off of his 2014 strikeout rate (29.2% in 2014 compared to 19.9% last year), and he totaled a .175 ISO, so there's a good chance his numbers against southpaws improve this year. He's also firmly established himself as a well above average hitter against righties. His low walk rate against pitchers of either handedness creates more volatility in his game-to-game performance, but he has a sky-high ceiling that's drool inducing in GPPs.

Francisco Cervelli was quietly a stud last year. Yes, a lot of his "studliness" was the result of his pitch-framing expertise and work behind the plate, but he swung the stick well, too, rattling off a .341 wOBA and 119 wRC+. He showcased above average patience working walks on 9.0% of his plate appearances, and working counts didn't result in an ugly strikeout rate as he punched out in only 18.4% of his plate appearances. His pop is middling against righties and passable against lefties, but he's made himself an asset against lefties by walking often (11.1% walk rate in his career) and cutting back on punch outs (16.6% strikeout rate against southpaws in his career). Hitting behind a handful of talented hitters should provide some ducks on the pond, and the RBI potential that creates elevates the ceiling of Cervelli. He's not a star-caliber hitter, but he's playable.

Jordy Mercer isn't a household name among average baseball fans, but most daily baseball gamers are familiar with his work against lefites. Even in a down year last season, Mercer posted a still respectable .323 wOBA and 107 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Mercer was very good against lefties in the minors, and he's carried that success with him to the majors. His lineup placement limits his upside, but you can do much worse punting at shortstop than using Mercer in that capacity when he faces a southpaw.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Gerrit Cole exhibited ace-like qualities prior to 2015, but he actualized those qualities and turned into a true ace. He misses bats, limits walks (5.3% walk rate) and coaxes a bunch of worm burners (48.0% ground-ball rate). The righty has a high-octane arsenal led by his cheddar. Cole's fourseam ranked eighth in average fourseam fastball velocity (96.47 mph) among starters who threw a minimum of 200, per Baseball Prospectus, and his sinker ranked fifth in average velocity (96.11 mph). He's more than a carnival act throw blazing fastballs to break bottles, he backs the heat with a changeup, curve and a filthy slider. His slider resulted in a 21.55% whiff rate, per Brooks Baseball. The righty is a supremely talented pitcher who is a top-flight option in all game types.

Francisco Liriano was a stud in year one with the Pirates (2013), struggled with his control more often in 2014 while still pitching well and turned in his second best walk rate (9.1%) in his major league career last season. Yes, that rate's still below league average, but it's coupled with a strikeout rate that ranked 10th among qualified starters. The lefty's ability to punch out hitters at one of the league's highest rates allows him to work himself out of self-created trouble. He also does a great job of inducing ground balls and had a 51.2% ground-ball rate last year. He's induced a ground ball on more than 50% of the balls put in play off of him in all three years he's pitched for the Bucs. His inconsistent control leads to the occasional clunker, but the combination of punch outs and ground balls actually makes him more than merely a high-upside GPP play and keeps him in the mix in cash games, too.

Things get uglier in the rotation after Liriano, starting with Jeff Locke. The lefty does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (51.0% ground-ball rate last year), but his control has hovered around average to below average, and he strikes out batters at a below average rate. His platoon split has been on opposite ends of the spectrum the last two years. In 2014, he held lefties to a .238 wOBA while ceding a .342 wOBA to right-handed batters. Last year, lefties rocked him for a .351 wOBA and righties managed just a .311 wOBA. Thanks to the offense backing him and the ballpark he calls home, Locke will occasionally have bargain SP2 value on DraftKings and other multi-pitcher sites, but that's where his value tops out.

Jon Niese is basically a one-year older version Locke with slightly better control. The former Met tallied a career-high 54.5 ground-ball rate last year with a respectable 7.1% walk rate. He doesn't strike out many batters, however. Moving from pitching home games at Citi Field to pitching them at PNC Park is actually a small backward step, but nothing to cause alarm. Maybe Searage can coach a little more out of Niese, but a drop in swinging strike rate every season since 2010 provides reason for pessimism. Like Locke, he should have occasional bargain SP2 value, but that's about it.

Ryan Vogelsong was awful last season. He's 38-years old, and finding reasons to buy into him as a viable daily baseball pitching option this year is like searching for a need in the hay stack. If Vogelsong is able to pitch at a league average rate, it might make for Ray Searage's greatest redemption story. The old saying goes you can't make chicken salad out of chicken sh ... well, you get the idea. Left-handed batters tormented Vogelsong last year slugging .553 and rattling off a .383 wOBA. Vogelsong was only slightly better against lefties in 2014 allowing a .453 slugging and .346 wOBA to them. Stacking lefties against the veteran right-hander should work out well for daily gamers.

Stock Watch

Up - Jung-ho Kang

Jung-ho Kang made the successful transition from dominating in the KBO in 2014 to raking in the majors in 2015. It wasn't a seamless transition. He struggled in the spring, didn't kick the door in while he was used as a reserve early in the year, but he exploded in the second half. In the second half, Kang hit 11 homers with a .239 ISO, .392 wOBA and 154 wRC+ in 214 plate appearances. He wasn't hitting wall scrapers, either. Kang ranked 31st (right behind teammate Andrew McCutchen, coincidentally) in average home run and fly ball distance, according to Baseball Heat Maps. He also ranked 29th in average line drive and fly ball exit velocity among batters who totaled at least 100 at-bats, per Baseball Savant. One of the more intriguing pieces of information in Kang's splits is improved batted ball data in the second half. In the first half, he totaled a 21.3% line-drive rate, 24.7% fly-ball rate and 27.0% hard hit ball rate. In the second half, those rates ballooned to a 24.2% line-drive rate, 30.9% fly-ball rate and 43.0% hard hit ball rate. Line-drive rate takes a long time to normalize, so it's a bit ambitious to project him to maintain his second-half rate, but the bump in fly-ball rate is very sustainable and bodes well for him finding the seats more often in 2016. As is noted above, he's rehabbing a leg injury and probably won't be ready until the end of April. Monitor how he plays on his minor league rehab assignment before deciding whether or not to use him immediately following his return to the active roster.

Down - Josh Harrison

Josh Harrison's 2014 breakout was a great story, but a look under the hood provided plenty of red flags hinting at a substantial step back. Harrison was dinged up and missed time, but his home run total dropped from 13 in 550 plate appearances in 2014 to four in 449 plate appearances last season. He stole 18 bases in 25 attempts in 2014, but his already spotty efficiency crumbled stealing just 10 bases in 18 attempts last year. His OBP is batting average driven which means it's volatile, and if he's dropped in the order for a better OBP hitter (such as Jaso), his value would take a huge hit. As it stands, Harrison's stock is down as a result of him coming back to Earth last year after his breakout 2014 campaign. And as the table indicates, he's a much stronger play against lefties than righties.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.