Examining Cafe Value: NFL Week 10

If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 10 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense.

DraftKings

Quarterback

Blake Bortles is one of my favorite plays at quarterback in all game types this week, and he's a steal, hence the top ranking in Cafe Value. The Ravens have surrendered the second most DratKings fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and despite his shortcomings in reality, he's been a strong fantasy option averaging 274.1 yards passing per game and just over two touchdown passes per contest. Kirk Cousins (spoiler) appears on both lists, and that's partly due to his price at each site, and partly due to his opponent. The Saints have allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks at both DraftKings and FanDuel, and they've been torched by seemingly everyone they've faced this year. Josh McCown also appears on both lists, and he'll be the finally quarterback I address from this top five. He should be a go this weekend, and the Steelers have been rather giving through the air yielding the 10th most DraftKings fantasy points per game to signal callers in 2015. McCown's been given the green light to air it out this year, and he's averaging a healthy 271.0 yards passing per game with 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions in seven games played. The game has a low total, though, and I'm not terribly enamored with him on either site.

Running Back

Darren McFadden is besting 20 touches a week, and he's eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage in three straight games, yet he remains priced like a middling back. Not many players can boast the volume of work McFadden's receiving, and having the hogs he has blocking for him in Dallas makes life a lot easier. He remains a steal. Antonio Andrews has emerged as the feature back for the Titans, and he's totaled 152 yards on the ground on 35 carries in the last two games while adding four receptions for 41 receiving yards. His ceiling isn't exciting, but he's better than his $3,700 price tag would indicate, and if the Titans are going to get the better of the Panthers defense, it's most likely to be done on the ground. Game flow should do wonders for Theo Riddick. The Lions are the biggest underdogs of the week and Riddick is the pass-catching back, and at a full-point per reception, he should easily provide value at $3,300. The big total in the Saints at Redskins game likely inluences both C.J. Spiller and Mark Ingram cracking the top five, but only Ingram will warrant consideration from me. He's been a workhorse and his advancements as a pass catcher this year make him a truly high-ceiling player.

Wide Receiver

Two receivers from this group stand out from the pack for me, and they're Brandon LaFell and Stefon Diggs. LaFell surpassed 100 yards receiving last week and he's attached to the highest team over/under total of the week and some guy named Tom Brady. Both of those things are good, and the absence of Dion Lewis from the offense for the rest of the year opens the door for more work for the guys behind Gronk and Julian Edelman. Diggs is coming off of his worst game as a pro, but he should bounce back nicely against a Raiders squad that served up 284 yards receiving and 17 receptions to Steelers' number-one wide out Antonio Brown last week. I'm not saying Diggs is comparable to Brown, but Diggs has been great this year and ranks seventh among qualified receivers with 92.2 receiving yards per game on nine targets per game. The beauty of last week's clunker is a dip in price this week, and he's back to being a steal.

Tight End

The bargain bin is well represented. The Ravens' passing attack lacks weapons, and Crocket Gillmore should see an uptick in usage as a result, namely in the red zone, where his size will be welcomed with open arms by Joe Flacco. The game features a big-ish total and the Ravens are notable favorites, so red-zone trips should be there for Gillmore, finding the end zone is likely key for his value, though. The two tight ends I'm digging most top the list. Eric Ebron has made strides in year two in the NFL, and he's caught a touchdown in half of his games played (three of six) while averaging almost 50 yards receiving per game. The Lions are projected to get squashed, and if they're playing catch up right out of the gate, that should mean plenty of opportunities for Ebron even after accounting for the looks Megatron and Golden Tate are likely to absorb. Finally, Jordan Reed is a strong play who gamers were all over in the Thursday night GPPs. The Saints have allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends this year, and Reed frequently jostles for the most targets among Redskins pass catchers. It's not hard to imagine him besting 20 DK points this week.

Defense

FanDuel

Quarterback

Cousins and McCown are repeat visitors, so I'll move on to the two quarterbacks left that I like, Tom Brady and Cam Newton. Brady is the highest projected scoring quarterback this week, his team has the highest total and he's clicking on all cylinders this year. Even as the second most expensive signal caller, he ranks third in Cafe Value at quarterback, and he'll be a popular play this week (for good reason). Newton did it all last week throwing for three scores and rushing for another, and his passing and running skills make him a high-ceiling play every week. That's the case this week, even against a decent, albeit unspectacular defense of the Titans.

Running Back

There are three fresh faces on this list. I simply can't tout Jeremy Langford against the stiff defense featured by the Rams. I understand the appeal of a feature back at $6,200, but in addition to the tough assignment, game flow could work against him since the Rams are more than a touchdown favorite. DeAngelo Williams faces a defense tied for the third most FanDuel fantasy points allowed to running backs this year, and Williams has been a stud in all three of his starts this year. Big Ben practiced in a limited capacity on Thursday, but I'm skeptical of his availability this weekend. Even if Big Ben plays, the Steelers would be wise to lean on their hot back against a soft run defense, and gamers made Williams the highest owned back in FanDuel's Thursday GPP contests. I looooove Justin Forsett in GPPs. With Steve Smith Sr. out for the rest of the year, Forsett is far and away the best offensive player remaining. He'll receive a ton of work, and while the threat is there defenses will be able to key in on him and take him away, his speed and ability to pop long runs and receptions is appealing on a high volume of touches. Also, the Jaguars aren't the stalwart defense I'd expect to take Forsett away. They've coughed up the eighth most FanDuel fantasy points per game to running backs in 2015.

Wide Receiver

This is a who's who group of pass catchers, and I'll hit them all in rapid fire fashion. Alshon Jeffery is a target machine and leading the league in receiving yards per game (123.0), yet he's priced outside the top-10 wide receivers. Next. Michael Crabtree is getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment. Amari Cooper is getting all the attention, but it's Crabtree who leads the Raiders in receptions, targets and receiving touchdowns, yet he's priced like he's still scuffling with Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco. Nate Washington is the one receiver who's not like the others. That said, The Texans air the ball out a ton and they're double-digit dogs in Cincinnati, and that leaves the door open to DeAndre Hopkins getting his and more than scraps being left on the table for Washington. Randall Cobb is the top receiver for the Packers, and the Lions are allowing the sixth most FanDuel fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Throw in that the Packers have the second highest team total of the week, and you've got yourself a high-floor and high-ceiling option in Cobb. Finally, Demaryius Thomas rounds out the group, and he's only facing the most giving defense in football from a fantasy points allowed per game to receivers perspective. Thomas' one receiving touchdown this year is reason to sound the sad trombone, but the rest of his statistical profile remains tantalizing, and his ability to do damage on short passes mitigates the risk of Peyton Manning's noodle arm hurting him.

Tight End

Outside of Reed, the rest of this list is fresh faces. Greg Olsen is the only reliable "receiver" for Cam Newton to throw the ball to, and the result is Olsen being one of just two tight ends in the top 25 in the league in targets (69), and he's pacing the Panthers in all major receiving categories. Rob Gronkowski is a man among boys at tight end, and even at far and away the highest salary, he ranks third in Cafe Value at tight end. That's what happens when you're projected to score 20+ FD points and hold nearly a four point edge over the next highest projected scoring tight end. The Giants have been roasted by tight ends this season allowing the third most FanDuel fantasy points per game to them, and they've yet to face the best one in the game. Tyler Eifert shined in prime time last week moving to the league lead in touchdown receptions thanks to a three touchdown effort that pushed his season total to nine. He's not merely touchdown dependent for value, either, averaging 54.3 yards receiving per game. The Bengals have a big team total of 29 points, but the spread is a bit worrisome for game flow, so Eifert is more of a GPP play by my estimation. Benjamin Watson isn't Jimmy Graham, but he's emerged as one of Drew Brees' favorite pass catchers this year, but you wouldn't know that by his salary ($5,500). Brees penchant for spreading the ball around makes Watson something of a boom-or-bust play. In Watson's defense, he's caught at least five passes in five straight games, and he's totaled more than 50 yards receiving in four of those games, including two games north of 125 yards receiving.

Defense

A few different defenses featured here when compared to the DraftKings group. First is the Bengals. They're the second biggest betting favorites this week and at home, and when teams are put in predictable passing situations, fantasy scoring tends to happen for defenses. The Bengals have done a good job of decking quarterbacks ranking tied for fifth with 23 sacks. The Panthers have been one of the best defenses in football this year by any measure, and they're facing a rookie quarterback, albeit an impressive one. The ability of the Cats to score points via sacks and turnovers, and their status as betting favorites makes them an appealing group even on the road. Finally, the Steelers are the other unit not included on the DraftKings list. The Steelers have some shortcomings as a defense, but overall, they've been good and they face a Browns squad that's both turnover prone (tied for the third most turnovers this year with 17) and struggles to keep their quarterback off his back serving up the second most sacks (30) to opposing defenses.