Examining Cafe Value: NFL Week 12

If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 12 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense.

DraftKings

Quarterback

Four of the five quarterbacks featured as the top-five Cafe Value plays have something in common, and that is that they're the minimum salary. The lone exception is Blake Bortles. Bortles and the Jaguars feature one of the highest team over/under totals of the week, and they draw a below average Chargers defense this week, so I like the play quite a bit. Of the minimum salary quarterbacks, two stand out to me as great plays. Josh McCown is back atop the depth chart at QB for the Browns, and he torched the Ravens for 457 yards passing, a pair of touchdown tosses and a touchdown rush. He's played at a high level for the Browns this season, and the Ravens make for a soft matchup allowing the second most DraftKings fantasy points per game and the fifth most FanDuel fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, according to Pro-Football Reference. Brian Hoyer tops the quarterback list, and he's my favorite play at the position this week in cash games and GPPs alike. The Saints have been embarrassed game after game by quarterbacks, and not even the bye week and the firing of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will be enough to right the ship. As they say, it's not about the x's and the o's, it's about the Jimmys and the Joes, and the Saints are lacking in the top-flight defensive personnel needed to turn things around. The Saints are allowing the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, and it's not even close. In addition to being a great value play at DraftKings and FanDuel, our NFL Salary Exploitation Tool illustrates he's a bargain at FantasyHub as well.

Running Back

Antonio Andrews rounds out the top-five Cafe Value plays at running back, but he's only a GPP consideration for me based on his soft matchup against the Raiders. His performance has been inconsistent this season, and the presence of David Cobb and Dexter McCluster could impact his playing time down the stretch. T.J. Yeldon is one of my favorite plays at any position this week. The Chargers are allowing the most DraftKings fantasy points per game and the most FanDuel fantasy points per game to running backs this year. Yeldon played admirably while nicked up on a short week last week, and having played in the Thursday Night Football contest last week, he should be a little fresher and healthier for this week's dreamy matchup. Thomas Rawls was a beast in relief of Marshawn Lynch, and he ranks in the top-15 in rushing yards this year despite being a backup most of the year. Lynch had surgery for a sports hernia this week, and that means Rawls will continue to start in his place. With the Seahawks running a run-heavy offense, Rawls should easily pay off his small salary. He'll be one of the more popular option in all game types this week. Finally, Shaun Draughn should draw another start and the lion's share of work in the backfield for the 49ers. He's touched the ball exactly 20 times in back-to-back games, and while his yardage ceiling is limited, his volume, namely in the passing attack (12 receptions on 16 targets), should allow him to provide value at his tiny salary.

Wide Receiver

A pair of San Diego Chargers receivers crack the list. Stevie Johnson is the de facto number-one receiver in the absence of both Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, and over the last two weeks he's totaled 14 receptions on 18 targets for 122 yards receiving with no touchdowns. The yards per catch leave something to be desired, but the volume should allow him to provide value at his small salary. Dontrelle Inman has been less productive in his increased role, but he's a viable punt if you'd like to bank on a tiny uptick in production thanks to a favorable matchup and the Chargers continuing to run a pass-heavy offense. Kamar Aiken delivered five receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown in a tough matchup last week, but that was with Joe Flacco still under center. With Matt Schaub now leading the Ravens, I'll pass on Aiken. Of the two receivers from the Seahawks, Doug Baldwin is easier to support using. He leads the Seahawks in receiving yards (539) and is tied for the team lead in receptions (44). He's strung together back-to-back games in which he's been useful totaling 13 receptions for 194 yards receiving and a touchdown. The Steelers are allowing the fifth most DraftKings fantasy points per game to receivers, and that helps make Baldwin a sneaky GPP value play.

Tight End

There isn't likely to be a happier person to see Josh McCown back under center than Gary Barnidge. Excluding McCown's injury-shortened opener, Barnidge averaged six receptions on 8.67 targets for 64 yards receiving with one touchdown in six games playing with McCown. He's my favorite play at tight end this week, and his price isn't limiting to building the rest of your roster at all. Travis Kelce has been a bit of a disappointment this year, but that's largely a product of who is throwing him the ball. He remains a matchup nightmare, and even though the Bills are an above average defense against tight ends, he's a worthy GPP play thanks to the ceiling his physical gifts present him. Heath Miller is the other tight end who stands out to me from this group. In his last three games playing (mostly) with Ben Roethlisberger, he's totaled 20 targets and turned that volume into 17 receptions for 177 yards receiving. The bulk of his production came in a Week 10 game against the Bengals (10 receptions for 105 yards), but he has a plus matchup with the Seahawks (they're allowing the third most DraftKings fantasy points per game to tight ends) and good rapport with Big Ben.

Defense

There are two defenses on this list that I'm digging. The first is the Giants. They're coming of their bye and played the Patriots tough before the bye week forcing two turnovers (and dropping a gift interception on what would turn into the game-winning drive by Tom Brady and the Pats) and recording three sacks. Kirk Cousins is an average at best quarterback, and the Giants have a decent ceiling that far exceeds their tiny salary. The top Cafe Value defense is the Browns, and while I didn't foresee saying nice things about this defense at any point this year, a matchup with the Ravens could make them look like the '85 Bears. The Ravens are without their starting quarterback, starting running back and number-one wide receiver. There isn't an NFL team that can withstand those losses and play at even an adequate level. Matt "Pick Six" Schaub is in the driver seat for the Ravens, and they have a tiny 19 point team over/under total. At the minimum salary, it's hard to imagine the Browns failing to deliver a positive ROI.

FanDuel

Quarterback

A whopping four of quarterbacks on the DraftKings list are also on the FanDuel list. Even at a higher salary, I still love Brian Hoyer on FanDuel and view him as my top play, but the case for using Josh McCown at FanDuel is strengthened by an $800 gap between the two in salary. Not surprisingly, the two flip flop the top position in the Cafe Value rankings due to their salary discrepancy. Alex Smith appeared in both lists, but I simply can't advocate starting a quarterback who has scored multiple touchdowns in only two games this year and has bested 300 yards passing one time. Russell Wilson on the other hand is a duel-threat quarterback who I can easily get behind using in GPPs. He shined last week passing for 260 yards and three scores while adding 30 yards on the ground. He's averaging nearly 40 yards per game rushing, and that helps make up for his ho-hum passing numbers.

Running Back

I'll address the elephant in the room. As the weekend approaches, it's looking increasingly unlikely that Charcandrick West plays, and that makes his backup, Spencer Ware, a strong value play as an injury fill-in. Thomas Rawls, T.J. Yeldon and Shaun Draughn are all carryovers from the DraftKings list. I'm far less inclined to use Draughn on FanDuel than DraftKings due to the scoring difference for receptions. At a full point for each reception at DraftKings, he makes sense as a dice roll, but he makes less sense at just half a point per reception even at his great price. Rawls and Yeldon remain two of my favorite plays and will be quite popular among other gamers as well. DeAngelo Williams is a fresh face who rounds out the position. The Seahawks are allowing the fewest FanDuel fantasy points per game to running backs this year, so the matchup isn't the draw for Williams. That said, he's played at a high level as a starter this year eclipsing 125 yards rushing twice and reaching at least 69 yards from scrimmage in each of his starts. He's a fine GPP play thanks to his resurgent play in his first year donning black and yellow.

Wide Receiver

With the prices of players more tightly clustered on FanDuel, a pair of studs crack this group. DeAndre Hopkins is likely to be the most popular play at wide receiver this week thanks to the ineptitude of the Saints defending the pass and his own excellence. Hopkins barbecued Darrelle Revis in Week 11, and he should have a field day against the pathetic secondary of the Saints. Larry Fitzgerald remains grossly underpriced despite his excellence this year. He ranks sixth in receiving yards per game (92.6), fourth in receptions (73) and tied for fifth in touchdown grabs (seven). He's easy to budget for at his salary, and the only threat to Fitz's production this week is the Cardinals pummeling the 49ers and taking their foot off the gas in the second half. Fitz has only had one clunker this year, though, so I like his odds of turning in another excellent showing against a bad secondary allowing the seventh most FanDuel fantasy points per game to receivers in 2015.

Tight End

Delanie Walker will have some competition for targets with Kendall Wright returning this week, but he's still been the best pass catcher on the Titans and I like him against a Raiders team that's made lesser tight ends than Walker look like superstars this year. The Raiders are allowing the fifth most FanDuel fantasy points per game to tight ends this year. A team that's struggled even more with tight ends than the Raiders is the Giants. They're allowing the second most FanDuel fantasy points per game to tight ends this year, so suffice to say Jordan Reed has a drool inducing matchup. He's been a favorite of Kirk Cousins, and even with a healthy receiving corps last week, he still totaled six receptions on eight targets for 46 yards receiving. He didn't reach pay dirt, though, and that snapped a three-game stretch in which he reached the end zone in each contest and a total of five times. The analysis for both Travis Kelce and Gary Barnidge remains the same at FanDuel as at DraftKings, and Barnidge is my favorite play at tight end here as well. Finally, Jimmy Graham rounds out the tight ends and draws a good matchup with the Steelers in Seattle. Graham isn't replicating his production with the Saints in year one with the Seahawks, but he's still tied for the team lead in receptions, leads the way in targets and is second on the team in receiving yards. He should be one of the apples of Russell Wilson's eyes this week since the Steelers are allowing the fourth most FanDuel fantasy points per game to tight ends this year. Graham's greatest value for the team could be in the red zone since the Steelers have allowed eight touchdown grabs to tight ends in 10 games this season.

Defense

The Browns aren't minimum salary at FanDuel like they are at DraftKings, but I still love the matchup with the Schaub led Ravens. The Chargers have been pathetic in back-to-back games without Keenan Allen and totaled just three points against the Chiefs in San Diego last week. The Jaguars aren't an elite defense by any measure, but they're roughly average and they should be aided by their matchup this week. They're also at home and betting favorites, making them a solid play. The last defense on the list is the priciest, but the Cardinals are facing the Blaine Gabbert led 49ers and they have arguably the highest ceiling of any defensive unit this week. The Cardinals are the biggest betting favorites and the only double-digit favorites this week, and their opportunistic secondary should have some chances to force turnovers when Gabbert is thrust into predictable passing downs and forced to play catch up.