Examining Cafe Value: NFL Week 13

If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 12 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense.

DraftKings

Quarterback

The most expensive quarterback in the group is Russell Wilson, and he's just $600 above the minimum salary at the position. He's on fire averaging over 300 yards passing in his last two games and having completed eight touchdowns with zero interceptions. He's a threat with his legs, too. I love Wilson this week. Ryan Tannehill has a great draw with the Ravens. They're allowing the third most DraftKings fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but he carries some risk with a change at offensive coordinator for the Dolphins and uncertainty surrounding what the offense will look like. Ryan Fitzpatrick is working on a career year now that he's reunited with Chan Gailey, and a matchup with the Giants should keep him flying high. The Giants are coughing up the second most DraftKings fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and they're getting roasted for 309.2 passing yards per game, per Pro-Football Reference, that's exactly 25 more yards than the next most torched team, the Saints. Jay Cutler has played well in year one with Adam Gase as his OC, namely in terms of taking care of the football. Cutler's sporting a career best 1.8% interception rate, yet his 251.0 yards passing per game is the third highest mark of his career. The 49ers have been inept defending the pass, but they've also been inept stopping the run, so there's some risk game flow hurt Cutler this week, making him a GPP only play.

Running Back

This is a treasure trove of value plays. Starting at the top, David Johnson will almost certainly be the primary back for the Cardinals with Chris Johnson lost until the Super Bowl, if the Cardinals go that far, and Andre Ellington likely to miss this week's game with turf toe. Johnson has shown off a nose for the end zone with seven touchdowns from scrimmage (three rushing and four receiving) and another on a kickoff return. He's tied to the highest scoring offense in the NFL and should see around 20 touches. Shaun Draughn is game-flow proof and has touched the ball exactly 20 times in three straight games. His 17 receptions in three starts is especially noteworthy with a full-point per reception awarded at DraftKings. C.J. Anderson is playing very well since the Broncos' bye week in Week 7, has rushed for over 100 yards twice (including in his last game) and has averaged 6.1 yards per carry while rushing for 316 yards and three scores. Ronnie Hillman should still get his piece of the pie, too, but Anderson is the better receiver and the bigger back, thus he should get the goal-line duties. The Chargers are allowing the second most DraftKings points per game to running backs this year, so even if Anderson falls short of 20 touches, he'll have a chance to blow past the fantasy scoring output necessary to provide positive value on his $3,500 salary. DeAngelo Williams is having a career renaissance in his first year with the Steelers. As a starter (five games), he's totaled over 400 yards from scrimmage with four touchdowns and 13 receptions. The Steelers have a big team over/under total, and Williams makes for excellent exposure to it.

Wide Receiver

I'm not interested in rolling with either Brian Hartline or Dontrelle Inman, but the three names who headline this list will be all over y rosters. Starting at the top, Danny Amendola should be back this week and the Patriots desperately need him with Rob Gronkowski suffering an injury last week. Amendola should net double-digit targets from Tom Brady. That's enough said. Doug Baldwin is the leading receiver for the Seahawks, and Jimmy Graham is now out for the year, and that could result in an uptick in usage for the number-one receiver. He and Russell Wilson have been locked in together lately, and over the last three weeks, Baldwin has been targeted 24 times and caught 19 passes for 339 yards receiving and four touchdowns. He's grossly under priced. Kamar Aiken didn't skip a beat with Matt Schaub starting in the Monday Night Football game. Aiken's 10 targets were twice as many as the next most targeted member of the Ravens, and he's thrived in the absence of Steve Smith Sr. Aiken faces the Dolphins this week, and Football Outsiders ranks the Dolphins dead last defending number-one receivers.

Tight End

Scott Chandler will probably be owned on more than 25% of DraftKings rosters in cash game and GPPs judging by his 13% ownership rate at a less cap friendly salary in Thursday FanDuel Mini Dive games. He's a big red-zone target for Tom Brady in an injury-depleted lineup for the Patriots, and he offers huge salary relief, making him one of the best plays at tight end in all game types at DraftKings this week. Vance McDonald is the other player who stands out to me from this group. He's caught a touchdown in back-to-back games and reached at least 65 yards receiving in each contest. In Blaine Gabbert's three starts, McDonald has been targeted 16 times and caught 12 passes for 155 yards receiving and a pair of scores. I like him as a sneaky GPP play, and a bargain play at that.

Defense

There are two defenses I'd use from this bargain bin. The Redskins are hosting the Matt Cassel led Cowboys, and Cassel is arguably the worst quarterback making a start this weekend. In a quarterback-driven league, that's reason enough to fire up a defense. The fact Kirk Cousins is excellent at home and could push the 'Skins out to a big lead out of the gate is further reason to like their defense this week. The Bears have been playing better as the season marches along, and while they're still a slightly below average unit, the 49ers are the worst offense in football. No team is scoring fewer points per game than the 49ers, and it's a home tilt for the Bears in which they are seven point favorites.

FanDuel

Quarterback

A couple of quarterbacks who cracked the top-five Cafe Value plays at DraftKings are repeat visitors in the FanDuel section. The two quarterbacks I'm most intrigued by, however, are Austin Davis and Cam Newton. Davis has been announced as the starting quarterback for the Browns this week, and at $5,400, he's much cheaper than any of the other starters around the league. He flashed competence as a quarterback last year averaging 200.1 yards passing per game with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 10 games (eight starts) for the Rams. At $5,400, the bar is extremely low for Davis to return positive value, but using him is all about chasing ceiling across the board at the other positions and having the cap space to pony up for studs elsewhere. Newton is at the other end of the salary spectrum, and he's the second most expensive quarterback. His ceiling might be unmatched this week, though, facing the Saints. The Saints have allowed the most FanDuel fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Newton isn't simply capable of carving the pathetic Saints pass defense up with his arm, however, he can also run all over them and has averaged 38.8 rushing yards per game and has rushed for seven touchdowns. His upside and floor are worth spending up for in cash games and GPPs.

Running Back

The top three names are familiar from the top-five Cafe Value backs above, and they're joined by Thomas Rawls and Darren McFadden. The Vikings run defense isn't allowing a ton of fantasy points to running backs, but don't be fooled, they're not a great run defense. They're surrendering the 13th most rushing yards per game (110.6) at a hearty 4.3 yards per carry. The undrafted rookie back has already bested 100 yards rushing three times this season, and in a "disappointing" effort last week, he ran for 81 yards and a touchdown. He should be good for another 20 carries, and with that, 100 rushing yards and a score is within reach. McFadden could hover around 20 touches this week, but the offense for the Cowboys isn't likely to produce many points with Matt Cassel leading them, and ultimately, that caps McFadden's ceiling.

Wide Receiver

Aiken and Amendola were sufficiently covered in the DraftKings section, so I'll move on to Larry Fitzgerald. He has a tough draw with the Rams. The Rams are allowing the third fewest FanDuel fantasy points to wide receivers this year and rank seventh defending number-one receivers. Fitz already totaled seven receptions for 99 yards receiving against the Rams earlier in the year, though, and he's a strong GPP play as an under priced stud who could be leaned on even more heavily if the running game sputters without Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington. Alshon Jeffery has been great when healthy this season. He ranks third averaging 100.8 receiving yards per game, and he has been targeted double-digit times in all but one contest. A soft matchup with the 49ers makes him one of my favorite options this week as Jay Cutler's primary weapon in the passing game. Antonio Brown is arguably the best receiver in the game, and that's apparent when he and Big Ben play together. He's averaging 136.71 yards receiving er game and 9.71 receptions per game with Roethlisberger at quarterback, and he's caught all five of his touchdowns from Big Ben. Brown is a great play in all game types this week.

Tight End

I'm far less enamored with Scott Chandler's price on FanDuel, but like I noted above, he's a big red-zone target who could easily hit value on a minimal salary. Greg Olsen is the top play at tight end in Gronk's absence this week, but he might have been even if Gronk was playing. Olsen is the only reliable pass-catching option for the Panthers and he's tied with Gronk for the most targets at tight end. He's easily the most productive pass catcher for the Panthers and is facing a Saints squad allowing the most FanDuel fantasy points per game to tight ends. Delanie Walker may have some more competition for targets with Kendall Wright back, but he's been the apple of Marcus Mariota's eye, and the Jaguars are allowing the eighth most FanDuel fantasy points to tight ends this year. Walker took advantage of the plus matchup against the same Jags in Week 11 and totaled 109 yards receiving on eight targets. Kirk Cousins plays at an all-pro level when he's at home, and the Redskins are hosting the Cowboys. That's good news for his tight end, Jordan Reed. Reed has been targeted six or more times in all but one game this year and has three or more receptions in every game this year. He's averaging 6.1 receptions per game, 60.1 receiving yards per game and has six touchdown grabs. He's been one of the better players at his position this season, and at under $6,000, he's slightly under priced. Gary Barnidge has been one of the more pleasant surprises in 2015, but I don't feel comfortable using him with Austin Davis. Davis is making his first start and it's unclear how frequently he'll look the tight end's way.

Defense

I've already covered the Redskins and Bears, and I'd use them at FanDuel as well. There is one other defense in this group I'd use, though, and that's the Steelers. Matt Hasselbeck has been surprisingly good in relief of Andrew Luck, but the Steelers are hosting the Colts and are serving as seven point favorites. They've shut down the run all year, and if Hasselbeck is forced to air it out from start to finish, that will provide the Steelers plenty of sack chances. The Steelers have done a good job of getting after the quarterback all year and rank tied for seventh with 30 sacks.