Examining Cafe Value: NFL Week 8

If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 8 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense.

DraftKings

Quarterback

Three names stand out to me from this group. The first is Brian Hoyer. Last week, he got off to a dreadful start before salvaging the day with a frantic second-half showing. Arian Foster's season-ending injury should place a greater burden on the passing attack, and more volume is plus for point scoring potential. DeAndre Hopkins is a stud number-one receiver, but Nate Washington's been solid in year one with the Texans. The matchup isn't dreamy, but Hoyer's price point is excellent. Andy Dalton is grossly underpriced. He's playing like a stud, taking care of the football, spinning touchdown passes and ripping off yardage in big chunks. The Steelers don't have a cornerback capable of keeping A.J. Green in check, and they've been one of the most giving defenses against tight ends, so Tyler Eifert should be running free for Dalton to air it out to all day. The spread, over/under total, Dalton's price point and the Red Rifle's excellence this year make him one of the best options at quarterback this week. Joe Flacco is in the game with the highest over/under total on the slate, and a Flacco/Steve Smith stack has enormous upside. Flacco's likely to be low owned, as the ownership table from Thursday's contests illustrates, and low owned plus big upside is what we seek in GPPs.

Running Back

Two sub-$4,000 running backs crack the top-five Cafe Value options at running back, and surprisingly, of the two, I'd prefer use C.J. Spiller instead of Darren McFadden. The Seahawks are tough as nails against running backs, Spiller checks in at the minimum salary, and the Saints have a huge team total (26.5 points). Spiller's home-run speed makes him a threat to reach the end zone any time he touches the ball, and coincidentally, he demonstrated that with a game-winning touchdown against the team that employs McFadden. The Chargers don't care about conventional offenses that feature balance. They're airing the ball out more than any other club, and Danny Woodhead is a major beneficiary. The game total of 50 makes it worth nabbing multiple pieces from the game, and Woodhead is a cheap piece of the action. A more expensive piece of the action, albeit a higher-ceiling piece is Justin Forsett. The Ravens offense is a two-man show with Forsett and Steve Smith serving as the only game-changing weapons at Flacco's disposal. The Chargers are getting gashed on the ground, so Forsett's upside is through the roof. Todd Gurley is my favorite option at running back, and his price point on DraftKings is laughable. He's a top-five back the remainder of the season. The 49ers are lost defensively, and the Rams status as big favorites this week will result in game flow working in Gurley's favor. That said, Gurley might be game flow proof at this point as the focal point of the offense (see the Packers game as evidence).

Wide Receiver

You'll recognize a few of these names from The YAC and Wide Receiver Matchup Grades. Suffice to say, Jason and I like Nate Washington, Martavis Bryant, and Stefon Diggs quite a bit. We're not alone in liking Diggs, with a 30% ownership rate in the Thursday Night Football contests, he's going to be on a ton o rosters. Considering his price is significantly cheaper on DraftKings, his ownership rate could approach 50%. I love him this week, but I'm not terrified of fading him in the same way I was terrified of fading Todd Gurley last week (and I opted not to fade him at all). Bryant is a touchdown machine throughout his career with 11 in 12 games played, and with a yards per reception mark north of 20, he doesn't need a ton of volume to do a ton of damage. That said, the favorable spread and over/under total suggest he could get volume that would make his efficiency result in a monster fantasy scoring line. Washington was the top Cafe Value at wide receiver on DraftKings last week, and he's claimed the top perch again this week. He's seen regular targets as DeAndre Hopkins' running mate, and the absence of Arian Foster should result in a continued steady diet of targets. At $3,600, the bar is exceptionally low for him to provide value.

Tight End

Two tight ends stand out from the pack from this group as enticing. The first is Ladarius Green. Green is a physical specimen who is translating his tools into production this year. Antonio Gates is expected to miss this week's contest, and that means Green is in the lead role at tight end again. He's been a red-zone target for Philip Rivers, and unlike most tight ends, he has a freakish combination of size and speed that makes him a home-run threat all over the field. The game total and spread point to a game worth targeting, and Green is a cheap piece of the action. The other tight end in this group I love is Delanie Walker. He's a reliable pass catcher who's been leaned on in the passing game regardless of who is under center for the Titans. He's reeled in seven or more receptions in three of six games played, and he's bested 40 yards receiving in four contests. He's very reliable, and a tad bit underpriced.

Defense

The Rams delivered last week, and even after a price hike, a plus matchup as big betting favorites makes them a high-ceiling unit again this week that should deliver for gamers who pay for their services. They were the highest owned defense in the Thursday Night Football GPPs, but I have no problem with going with the crowd in this case. They can get after the passer and in addition to being the lowest scoring team in the league, the 49ers struggle mightily to keep their quarterback upright. The other defense I like in this group is the top Cafe Value unit, the Titans. The absence of Arian Foster leaves a gaping hole in their backfield. The Texans will need to rely on passing the ball more, and while Brian Hoyer has been very good this year, he's not a star-caliber quarterback. More dropbacks from him means more sack opportunities. At just $2,500, the bar isn't high for the Titans to provide a positive ROI.

FanDuel

Quarterback

Philip Rivers is the most popular play at quarterback this week, and for good reason. No one has attempted more passes this year than he has, and he's not just racking up volume, he's racking up production. The Ravens feature a terrible pass defense, and the game features the highest over/under total of the week and a close spread. Rivers should turn in a monster performance. If you're looking to swerve off the masses, I like Eli Manning against the Saints a great deal this week. The Vegas total and spread are inviting, and the Saints have allowed the second most FanDuel fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, per Pro-Football Reference. Cam Newton's ability to beat teams with his arm and legs always puts him in play in GPPs, and the lackluster Colts' defense cements his status as a high-ceiling option this week. The final quarterback I'd use from this group is Brian Hoyer. He's been sharp in year one with the Texans, and he will likely be asked to up his volume to another level due to Foster's injury.

Running Back

This group of backs is a who's who of talent. I analyzed Todd Gurley in-depth above, and all I'll add here is that I love him on FanDuel as well. Justin Forsett has a dreamy matchup against a Chargers defense that is tied with the Browns for the most FanDuel fantasy points allowed per game in 2015. He's one of just two reliable offensive weapons for the Ravens, so volume should be no problem for him. Devonta Freeman has been a stud this year, and game flow should work in his favor with the Falcons serving as more than a touchdown favorite. The Bucs haven't been a soft run defense, but Freeman's likely heavy workload as a rusher and pass catcher makes him a stud again this week. Le'Veon Bell is a sweet GPP swerve off of the other elite backs. He was owned on less than 10% of GPP rosters for the Thursday Night Football contests, and like Freeman, he does it all. The receivers and quarterbacks, as well as tight end Tyler Eifert, are getting most of the love in this contest, but don't overlook Bell. His potential is immense, and no one should be surprised if he's the highest scoring player in that contest. Even with FanDuel awarding just half a point per reception, Danny Woodhead makes for a solid value. The Chargers have essentially abandoned the run this year, and Woodhead is a tremendous pass-catching back who fits what they're looking to do.

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones is elite. That's not exactly news, but with the salary disparity between the elite players and the fringe usable ones much smaller on FanDuel than at DraftKings, Jones finds himself atop the heap in Cafe Value. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Bucs dead last defending number-one wide receivers, and the Bucs have struggled stopping the pass in general. The sky's the limit for Jones. Steve Smith is far and away the top pass catching option for the Ravens. In what projects to be a back-and-forth affair with the Chargers in Baltimore this week, he's an underpriced asset with a big ceiling and relatively high floor. Larry Fitzgerald has been great this year, and he's been a touchdown scoring monster and is tied for second in the league with six. He's been extremely efficient this year, and that could play to his benefit this week since the Browns are very giving to runners, and that would reduce the Cardinals' need to air it out this week. I like Fitz less this week than recent weeks, but that's entirely the product of concern about the Cardinals leaning on Chris Johnson. If they air it out at their usual clip, Fitz will be a GPP difference maker. Finally, the second highest owned wide receiver in the Thursday Night Football contests, Keenan Allen, is a great option this week. The likely absence of Antonio Gates will eliminate one mouth for Rivers to feed, and it places Allen right back in the catbird seat for all the targets his heart desires. The Ravens have allowed the second most FanDuel fantasy points to wideouts this year, and Allen should carve them up.

Tight End

The Steelers have allowed the third most FanDuel fantasy points per game to tight ends, and Tyler Eifert is enjoying a full-blown breakout in 2015. His price hasn't caught up to his production, so you can do the math. Greg Olsen is the only reliable pass catching threat for Cam Newton, and Newton's proven cognizant of that targeting his stud tight end rather frequently. Olsen has reached the 50 target threshold already, and he's seen double-digit targets in three of six games this year. Martellus Bennett draws a Vikings squad that's allowed the seventh most FanDuel fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. He and Jay Cutler have picked up where they left off last year, as Bennett is once again an integral part of the Bears' passing attack. Gary Barnidge has treated us to one of the most surprising breakouts in recent memory. He's the apple of Josh McCown's eye, and he's ripped off 33 receptions for 514 yards and five touchdown snags. The knock on his this week is that the Cardinals have locked tight ends down, but with Barnidge getting looks aplenty, he's a worthwhile GPP dice roll if you're looking for a low-owned player with substantial upside.

Defense

As I noted above, the Rams are once again my favorite defense of the week. They're an elite group and facing the worst offense in football this week. The Panthers have also been an excellent defensive unit, and as larger than a touchdown favorite at home, and facing turnover-prone Andrew Luck, the ceiling is high when the Colts end up stuck in predictable passing situations. Contrary to popular belief, the Seahawks aren't that bad. Yes, they've gotten off to a sluggish start, but their defense remains one of the best in the game. They're on the road, but they're facing a Matt Cassell led offense. That offense could be the 2004 Patriots, and you'd still have to feel good about the Seahawks against Cassell. The Cowboys are not even close to as talented as that Patriots team, and Cassell's nearing the end of his career. If you're willing to pay up, the Seahawks defense has the potential to separate you from the pack.