Examining Cafe Value: NFL Week 14

If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 14 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense.

DraftKings

Quarterback

The most expensive quarterback in this group is Jameis Winston, and he's only $500 more than the minimum salary for the position. He's also my favorite option in this group. Go figure, a quarterback facing the defense surrendering the most DraftKings fantasy points per game to quarterbacks is my favorite bargain option in this group. A former quarterback for the Bills, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and their current starter, Tyrod Taylor, are the other two quarterbacks in the top five Cafe Value options who I like in GPPs this week. Reunited with Chan Gailey, Fitzpatrick is playing the best football of his career and is just three touchdown passes away fro setting a new single-season high of 25. He's also less than one yard per game off of his single-season high yardage pace set in 2011, and he's averaging under one interception per game. He has a soft matchup against the Titans, and they're allowing the seventh most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year. If you like Fitz's matchup, you'll love Taylor's. The Eagles have allowed the fourth most DraftKings fantasy points per game to signal callers. Taylor hasn't thrown an interception since Week 4, he's had back-to-back games with three touchdown passes and he's accounted for 20 touchdowns (17 passing and three rushing) this season. The duel-threat quarterback has a high ceiling

Running Back

Four pass-catching backs and Frank Gore. Perhaps that's not entirely true, as Gore's averaging 2.5 receptions and 20.3 yards receiving per game, which is a non-zero contribution. He hasn't been a great runner this year, and he hasn't bested 4.0 yards per carry since Week 7, but he's a good bet for around 20 touches against a below average run defense. The two backs from this group I like the best are Shaun Draughn and Javorius Allen. Draughn has a dreamy matchup against a Browns squad allowing the sixth most DraftKings fantasy points per game to running backs and surrendering the second most rushing yards per game (136.3) this season. Draughn's been quite valuable as a receiver totaling 22 receptions for 163 yards receiving in his last four games, so if he can also add value as a runner this week, he'll prove to be a steal at $4,800. Speaking of backs who've been valuable as receivers, Buck went nuts last week catching 12 of 13 targets for 107 yards receiving and a touchdown. He's also rushed for 55 yards or more in three straight games. The sledding will be tough for him as a runner against the Seahawks, but his contributions in the passing game at a full-point per reception makes him a solid play this week.

Wide Receiver

I'll pass on Brian Hartline, but the other four wide receivers look good to me. Jeremy Maclin has turned in back-to-back big games reeling in 18 of 21 targets (accounting for 40.4% of Alex Smith's passes in that time frame) for 255 yards receiving and three touchdowns. He should continue his hot streak this week. The Patriots are taking it easy on Danny Amendola in practice, but he's in no danger of missing this week's game. He's one of the few healthy bodies for the Patriots in the passing attack, but the team could get a shot in the arm with Rob Gronkowski practicing in a limited capacity. Amendola should net plenty of targets and short receptions whether Gronk is back or not, and it's not crazy to think a Gronk return would actually aid Amendola by opening up things in the short passing attack. Maclin isn't the only hot receiver in this group, Doug Baldwin has caught five or more passes in four straight games while piling up a total of 24 receptions for 433 yards receiving and six touchdown receptions in that time frame. He's en fuego, and salary is lagging way behind his recent production. Finally, as I noted earlier in the week, Anquan Boldin has played well with Blaine Gabbert. Playing with the former Jaguar has resulted in averaged of 10.33 targets, six receptions and 74.3 receiving yards per game. Ten-plus targets against a team allowing the sixth most DraftKings fantasy points per game to receivers should allow him to easily hit value on his minimal salary.

Tight End

Martellus Bennett has been placed on season-ending IR, and that pushes Zach Miller to the top of the depth chart. He's banged up and been limited in practice this week, but he should play this weekend. He's shown chemistry at times with Jay Cutler this year, and he's caught four touchdowns in his last five games. You can do worse than punting with Miller at tight end. Scott Chandler's viability as a bargain option at tight end is contingent on Rob Gronkowski's health. As I noted above, he's practicing in a limited capacity and could return this week. If he's out, Chandler is in play as a red-zone threat, but I'm not crazy about him this week since he's largely touchdown dependent and the Texans have allowed just four touchdown grabs to tight ends this year. Charles Clay hasn't been consistently good this year, but he's reeled in all three touchdown receptions this season from Tyrod Taylor including one last week. He's been targeted 15 times the last two weeks combined, and he's an intriguing, contrarian stack partner with Taylor while filling a weak position this week.

Defense

The bargain bin isn't chock full of defenses I like this week, but the Buccaneers and Bears stand out as defensible plays. The Bucs will be facing the Saints in Tampa Bay, and Drew Brees simply isn't as good on the road as he is at home. They're without Mark Ingram and likely without Brandin Cooks since he suffered a concussion in practice either Wednesday or Thursday. The Bucs crack the top 10 in turnovers forced (21) and rank above average with 29 sacks. The Bears host the Redskins, and the Redskins are pitiful on the road averaging just 17.2 points per game in five road contests.

FanDuel

Quarterback

Tyrod Taylor is a carryover from the DraftKings top-five quarterbacks who I covered, and Johnny Manziel and Alex Smith are carryovers who I'm choosing to cover with this group because I like them better on FanDuel as a result of Winston and Fitzpatrick featuring steeper salaries there. Manziel is tied for the second cheapest salary among starting quarterbacks this week, and using him will allow for spending up elsewhere. My biggest knock on Johnny Football is that his best pass catchers, Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnidge, are at less than 100%, and even Brian Hartline is nicked up. All three could and probably will play, but that's a banged up group. As for Smith, the biggest concern with him is the spread (Chiefs -10 points). If the Chiefs get up big, and they likely will, the two-headed backfield of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware would be in line to chew up clock. Of course, it's possible the Chiefs race out to a big lead thanks to Smith, in which case a reduced role down the stretch run of the game wouldn't be as large of a concern. The final quarterback I'd consider from this group is Blaine Gabbert (I can't believe I'm saying that, but this isn't the same Gabbert). The Browns have allowed the sixth most FanDuel fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and Gabbert's scored more than 16 fantasy points on FanDuel in all four of his starts. Don't bank on him ripping off 75 yards rushing and a score again like he did last week, but in his other three starts he's averaged 22 yards rushing per game. I don't believe his ceiling is high, but for $6,400, I prefer him to Manziel and think he could flirt with 20 fantasy points.

Running Back

DeAngelo Williams isn't your typical back who's north of 30 years old, and he credits that to the Panthers spreading touches out between he and Jonathan Stewart. He's shining in year one with the Steelers and averaging 79.4 yards from scrimmage per game, and that's despite totaling just 43 yards from scrimmage from Week 3 through Week 7 when Le'Veon Bell was healthy. He's been an all-around contributor for the Steelers showing off previously unseen pass-catching skills and rushing for six touchdowns while surpassing 70 yards rushing in five games this year. The Steelers/Bengals game projects to be a shootout, and real-life points elevate the floor and ceiling of key contributors like Williams. It might be premature to declare Thomas Rawls matchup proof, but I'm going to do so. He's averaging an eye-popping 5.6 yards per carry and has bested 80 yards rushing with one touchdown run in each of his last three games. He's run for more than 100 yards in four games and even flashed a receiving prowess with three receptions in two of his last three games played. Rawls is a strong play in all game types. The Jaguars passing attack has nabbed all the headlines, but T.J. Yeldon is quietly turning in an excellent rookie campaign. He's averaging 15.5 rushes and 61.6 yards rushing per game, but he's not a one-trick pony. Yeldon has also averaged 3.2 receptions and 25.3 yards receiving per game. There aren't many backs who can boast roughly 19 touches per game, but Yeldon can, and he can rack up points as a runner or receiver this week against the Colts.

Wide Receiver

Alshon Jeffery has been targeted 11 times or more and surpassed 75 yards receiving in six of seven games this year. When he's healthy, he plays like a stud. He's healthy, and he has a good matchup with a Redskins team allowing the 10th most FanDuel fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Wide receiver is loaded with juicy matchups and high ceilings this week, but Jeffery remains a strong GPP option. A pair of former college teammates round out this list. Jarvis Landry was quiet last week in new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's offensive scheme. The team aired it out just 19 times, and it's unlikely they'll be treated to a game that will allow them to throw the ball fewer than 20 times again this week. Landry remains the top pass-catching option for the Dolphins and has turned in solid averages of 6.6 receptions and 68.6 yards receiving per game while finding the end zone five times from scrimmage and occasionally contributing as a runner (105 yards rushing this season). The Giants have had no answer for receivers and allowed the sixth most FanDuel fantasy points per game to them this season. Opposing Landry is Odell Beckham Jr. He's off to a historic start to his career and has averaged over 100 yards receiving per game in his career. He's on fire of late averaging 13.4 targets, 7.2 receptions and 126 yards receiving per game in his last five (all games in which he's exceeded 100 yards receiving) with six touchdown receptions. He'd be worth starting against any defense, but the Dolphins are ranked 32nd defending number-one receivers by Football Outsiders, and that makes OBJ a must start in all game types.

Tight End

I've already addressed Miller and Chandler above, but I'll note that I like both players less on FanDuel as a result of the more tightly clustered salaries. Travis Kelce continues to be under used in the passing game, and he continues to post fantasy scoring outputs that are more okay than good. The last time the Chiefs played (and blew out) the Chargers, Kelce caught five of seven targets for 46 yards receiving. His upside exceeds that line, and the Chargers are allowing the seventh most FanDuel fantasy points per game to tight ends, but Kelce is little more than a single-bullet GPP option. The Bears are tough against tight ends and Kirk Cousins is lost on the road, so I'd pass on Jordan Reed. Greg Olsen is my favorite option at the position this week. He's the clear-cut top pass-catching option for Cam Newton, and he ranks in the top 20 in targets (95) and receptions (62) while cracking the top 15 in receiving yards (917). Olsen is also responsible for six touchdown grabs.

Defense

If you've already read The Blitz, you're well aware I love these defenses as the Seahawks and Packers ranked as elite plays and the Chiefs and Jets checked in with GPP touts. As opposed to providing the cliff notes versions of why I like those defenses, I'd advise reading the linked article for in-depth explanations.